- نويسنده Reza Shakeri Bostanabad
- همكار Sanaz Karimpour
- نام نشريه
Journal of trade and Industrial Policies
- كد نشريه
NA-05-XXX-236
- زمان انتشار
شهريور 1405
- شماره نشريه
Volume 1, No. 1, Spring & Summer 2026
- صاحب امتياز
Institute for Trade Studies and Research
- زبان
English
The development of non-oil exports has become a strategic priority for Iran due to vulnerability associated with oil dependence and the need for sustainable economic growth. Within this framework, the food manufacturing sector, as a key component of the agricultural value chain, possesses considerable potential for value creation, employment generation, and integration into regional and global markets. However, despite significant production capacities and geographical advantages, Iran’s food industry has not fully achieved its export potential, highlighting the need for effective industrial transformation pathways. This study develops an artificial intelligence-based framework to assess transformation pathways in Iran’s food industry by integrating historical evidence with expert knowledge. Machine learning models, including Random Forest and XGBoost, were applied using annual time-series data from 2000 to 2022 to identify major determinants of food industry export performance. The predictive results were interpreted through Explainable Artificial Intelligence (SHAP) to reveal the contribution and direction of influential factors. Furthermore, an expert-based Self-Organizing Map (SOM) clustering approach was employed using perceptions of 150 industrial experts to identify feasible transformation priorities. The results indicate that variables associated with food manufacturing capacity, industrial productivity, and agricultural value creation provide the largest contributions to the predictive structure of food export performance, while the exchange rate represents an important but comparatively lower-ranked factor. The expert-based analysis, however, identifies exchange rate instability, policy uncertainty, and weak international market capabilities as major institutional and strategic constraints affecting the practical realization of export potential.